2012 in Review- An Appraiser’s Personal Perspective

December 24, 2012 at 7:44 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment
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In November 2011, after a long search for our next home, my family was in escrow with plans to close by Christmas.  We told the kids that we wouldn’t decorate our current house but would make that the first priority in the new house- a week before Christmas.  This was a resale home in a neighborhood that we had been eyeing for some time.  It needed minor updates but was ideal for many reasons.  As an appraiser who had been looking to move for the prior two years, this was the end of a long and painful process.  You see, I’m too smart for my own good…

As an appraiser, I’d like to think I have a pretty keen sense of the real estate market (like a financial planner does…).  I can quickly estimate the value range of a home and I know good neighborhoods.  As the real estate market was in its nadir in 2010, we were just looking for the right deal.  On top of that, besides appraising homes all over the valley, I worked for a servicer of Fannie Mae defaulted loans, doing nationwide appraisal fraud investigation- so I knew that the pipeline for distressed homes was endless- think the Sta-Puft Marshmallow man of shadow inventory. staypuft I would not overpay, and it was a buyer’s market.  I have friends who buy houses at auction- fix and flippers.  We weren’t looking to get in that game ourselves, just use those sorts of resources to get a home at auction.  But we don’t have the cash available to buy a houe outright.  We’d need traditional financing.

However, this proved to be more difficult than anticipated.  At first my wife and I were very particular about neighborhoods.  We’d research the homes coming to auction over the next 60 days, check them out and then put in a bid.  However, so many auctions were cancelled or postponed, that the ratio of homes actually going to auction on the dates scheduled was like one in ten.  So despite this arduous research and planning, we were only able to bid on four houses during a year’s span- and in every case, we lost out by just a few thousand dollars.

This process was made worse by the fact that we had previously seen short sale listings- that take forever to close, and they actually closes during the time that we had been searching through our process.  A friend of mine actually put in a bid on short sale and has subsequently moved in.  So with this in mind we decided to expand our search to the Multiple Listing Service.  Through this process, we actually found a home that fit our criteria and placed a full price offer on a home that appeared to be slightly undervalued.  Our good friend loan officer told us that we would have no problem with the loan- despite a HAMP loan mod in 2010- and we didn’t even need to rent out our current house (though we would)!

Well, as my wife worked at a bank, her in-house lender got wind of our move and asked “why don’t you do the loan through the bank?  It will essentially be a free loan since you’re an employee.”  At this we decided to have the in-house lender do our loan.  Our friend told us that he couldn’t beat that deal and we decided that it was the best route to take to save a few bucks…

We un enrolled the kids from their schools, their classmates threw them going away parties and gave them goodbye cards, we met up with some renting friends from the neighborhood for a little celebration, got a carpeting quote and placed a down payment through Home Depot, we had the inspection done and we had the appraisal done.  We even had a tenant lined up with rent several hundred above our mortgage payment.   All was well- until the loan officer told us that loan wouldn’t go through because of our loan modification- despite the fact that they were already aware of it and said it wouldn’t be a problem.  But not to fear she told us, she had another lender who said they could do the deal- it would just take another two weeks.  A week later and now the middle of December- the day after school let out for Christmas, we were told that this second lender had also balked at our loan.  We were devastated and slightly pissed off and we started venting about it with our friends.  Everybody and their brother heard of our plight and assured us that they knew someone who could do our loan- even our friend lender who we were supposed to work with from the get go.  He was astonished that our loan was dead and assured us that his in-house underwriter was already aware of our situation and was ready to fund our loan.

However, this would mean another three weeks minimum as we’d be starting from scratch.  We’d be pushed out to mid January, school would have already started, and still, we had doubts that it would go through.    The president of my wife’s bank actually approached us and offered to give us a private loan for 12 months until we could get conforming financing (they don’t keep residential loans in house).  We respectfully declined.  So after some praying and discussion, and insight from a local real estate expert… my wife and I decided to back out of our deal completely with the notion of starting from scratch in the new year.  Total out of pocket expenses- $250 for the inspection, $400 for the carpet down payment.  But we had already packed our entire house so our garage was filled with stuff- ready for the move.

Christmas was fine with a rush decorating job but we were happy nonetheless.  Kids were a little confused but started up school again in our district at their old schools.

In January, we found a remodeled house in the MLS.  We threw caution to the wind and placed a full price offer the day it was listed (through our original lender) and lost out to a cash bidder who offered less.

At about the same time, I appraised my first home in a brand new tract of a neighborhood that had been heavily depressed over the past several years.  This house was selling for $30,000 more than resales of the same utility!  I was astounded.  I subsequently did about 30 houses in that subdivision and whenever I went there, people were packed in the sales office.  Competitior sales offices were also packed.

In February, the loan officer from my wife’s bank WAS FIRED for INCOMPETENCE!!!!!!

We placed an offer on another MLS house- full price, lost out to a cash buyer.  A friend who fixes and flips and did over 50 deals in 2011 had gone through the first quarter of 2012 wihtout finding a single house.  Investors had started to pay 10 percent over “zestimate” on auction homes- simply to get the homes and in most cases rent them out immediately.  Another fix and flipper had reworked his margins but was having a slower year.  My wife started unpacking boxes in about April.  We discovered clothes that we forgot we had.  I appraised many more homes with increasing prices.  We found none for ourselves.  My work doing Fannie Mae Appraisal Fraud review continued robustly.  There was a never ending supply of bad loans.  Yet the talk of the press was “recovery” and it was legitimate.  Or was it?

Sales were up, but in most cases- at least in Phoenix, it was investors, and they were paying cash.  The common man (AKA me) couldn’t buy a house despite being qualified.  And we couldn’t exactly overbid because of the fear of the appraisal coming in low and not having the funds to make up the difference.

In our favor was the fact that we never had to move in the first place.  Our house is beautiful and big enough for us and more.  We have views of two mountain ranges, are on a golf course and have a beautiful oasis pool that my wife designed herself.  We have a very good (modified) loan and our payment will stay low throughout its duration.  By the way, our renter friends whom we celebrated with a year ago?  They literally justed moved into their new construction home last week.

Am I too cheap?  Am I too conservative?  Am I too “smart” for my own good- despite the countless lost opportunity costs associated with being frugal?  The answer is undoubtedly YES with a little sarcasm around the quoted “smart”.  The house we were in escrow with is now worth 20-percent more.  There are very few homes on the market that we like and now they are listed for 30-percent more than they were a year ago, and quite frankly, we can’t afford that.trend

The good news is that all our moving boxes are out of the garage so we can park our cars there, we painted some rooms that needed it badly, and our home value has also gone up about 30- percent- but we’re still $60k in the hole.  From a personal perspective, we ended up where we started, but from a professional perspective, I can confidently tell you that whatever reasons you use to explain this recovery, it has been legitimate in 2012.  Where will things go in 2013?  If you can’t figure me out already, I have faith that the combination of fiscal cliff, high unemployment, increasing entitlements and lack of “real” buyers will cause things to slow down if not reverse- sort of a dead cat bounce.  But since I’ve made that proclamation, you can rest assured that we’ll continue to go up!  Have a Merry Christmas and Wonderful New Year filled with happiness, and good fortune!

Visit our website at http://www.advantageappraisalsllc.com, and if that doesn’t roll off the tongue, just try http://www.appraiserdude.com. Or now you can follow us on Twitter at @appraiserdude AND we just added a Facebook page for you to “like” at http://www.facebook.com/appraiserdude. Give me a call at 480-544-1217 if you have any questions. I look forward to working with you.

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What’s the Typical Appraisal Workload Nowadays?

October 1, 2009 at 5:27 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
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As times change, lines of appraisal work shift.  Back in 2003-2004, my work was about 47% rate and term refinances, 47% purchases, 6% “other” which included review work, estate settlement, bankruptcy, divorce, and hard money (like the guy who needed to refinance so that he could raise enough money to post bail for his son)

When I moved to Phoenix in 2005, the chunk of purchases jumped up to about 60% and then starting around 3rd quarter of 2007, that ratio shifted to a lot fewer purchases and actually volume so low that I can now admit was too small to gague statistics.

But today, I can actually measure my work volume and it has shifted significantly.  I went back 90 days to itemize the work I’ve done and here’s the approximate rundown:

 

My Trailing 90 Days Volume Breakdown

What, were you expecting actual numbers? 

Anyway, keep in mind that of the refinances, a lot (I assume) ended up below what they “needed” to make their deal work, but at least now I don’t feel the lender pressure to hit some sort of value with the unspoken threat of losing future work.  How do I know this?  Let’s just say that if they bought the home in 2006 for $350k with a $320k first mortgage and now the home is worth $160k, I surmise that they didn’t pay down their mortgage by over $160k over those 3 years.

As you can see, I now do a lot of Review appraisals.  Back in the day, these would be reviews of recently completed appraisals.  I rarely get those now.  What these reviews are is typically foreclosed homes that were appraised in the 2005-2007 era back when values were very high.  Someone wants to know if that appraisal was inflated.  And for the sake of privacy, I’ll just leave it at that.  And of those that I review, I’d say 95% of them WERE inflated.  At first I was a little confused on the purpose of these assignments because I would assume that some of these Appraisers are now out of business with little or no possible recourse.  But in actuality, these are not for the purpose of hunting down bad Appraisers, but instead to determine the big picture of the original transaction.  These assignments are pretty low stress in that I never enter the home being appraised, but it’s pretty glum work as that’s a lot of assignments where I never step out of the car.  And as an aside, I often see the original appraisal from say 2006, which shows a beautiful home, and when I see it (from the street and perhaps a newer listing now that it’s foreclosed), it’s a completely thrashed home- complete with holes everywhere, nasty carpets, overgrown yards and green pools.

REO work is Real Estate Owned assignments.  These are an example of how appraisal volume has increased over recent years.  These assignments are essentially pre-listing reports requested by the bank that now owns a foreclosed home.  Take for example the bank based in South Dakota that now owns a foreclosed home in Arizona.  They don’t know the market out here.  They KNOW that these free online home valuation sites are a complete waste and completely unreliable.  So among other things, they order what is known as an REO appraisal.  Basically, they want to know the appraised value based on closed sales, but they are very interested in what it would take to make the property truly competitive with other homes for sale, so a very detailed list of things wrong with the home is required.  Also, the other available listings are paid very close attention to.  Basically, the bank wants to get rid of these non-performing assets so they want to know what it will take to get these homes sold in a relatively fast time.

Estate work is on the rise.   People are always dying and the estate needs assets valued.  But when you add in a bad economy, you unfortunately get a lot of personal issues that require appraisals.  Bankruptcy and divorce are prime reasons why homes are appraised, so that the parties know how to proceed.  It’s sad but reality.

So, let me paint an image of the volume of appraisal work that I’m seeing or that can affect a single property over a relatively short period.

  1. Family buys a home in early 2006- conventional appraisal
  2. Family refinances their home in late 2006 to take out money for improvements- FHA appraisal
  3. Family decides to sell home in 2008- listing appraisal (not required but often done)
  4. Family can’t sell home by late 2008 and lowers price to point to breakeven point, spouse loses job, couple decides to divorce- estate appraisal
  5. Owner negotiates with bank for a short sale- bank gets an offer below asking price in early 2009 and questions if it’s a good offer- REO appraisal
  6. Short offer falls through, home is foreclosed in March 2009, bank wants to relist it- REO appraisal
  7. Third party questions original refinance appraisal August 2009- Retrospective review appraisal
  8. New buyer comes in and buys home September 2009- FHA appraisal

That’s right, we’re talking 8 separate appraisals on the same home within a very short period, all for different reasons or for different parties.  That’s a lot of potential work for Appraisers nowadays.

Now don’t get me wrong, I don’t want anyone to get the idea that I’ve got more work than I can handle- after all, I just spent the past few hours writing this blog!  More on the socialization of the appraisal industry some other time.  Don’t even get me started on the 20 year veteran getting the same pay/volume as the newbie.  (I’m somewhere in between- just a squirrel trying to get a nut)

Visit our website at www.advantageappraisalsllc.com, and if that doesn’t roll off the tongue, just try www.appraiserdude.com. Or now you can follow us on Twitter at @appraiserdude.  Give me a call at 480-544-1217 if you have any questions. I look forward to working with you.

Required Repairs and Inspections for an FHA Appraisal

October 20, 2008 at 3:46 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
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With the popularity of FHA loans recently come a lot of questions from my clients. Basically, they want to know what home issues are cause for further inspection or repairs. Since the appraisal is what it is, I can’t help if the house has an issue that needs to be repaired or addressed. In cases like these, I do what HUD tells me to do. But even with their guidelines, I’ve encountered plenty of other situations that are not or may not be as clear cut.

There are a ton of reasons why a loan could be rejected by HUD, and an Appraiser might disclose any number of those issues, but that decision is not up to the Appraiser. His job is to simply state the facts and observations so that HUD can make that decision. BUT, the Appraiser is required to call for additional repairs or inspections for certain observations.

From a 10,000 foot level, an FHA appraisal is done in a very similar way to non-FHA ones. But there is definitely a lot more attention paid to the home and a lot more judgment placed by the Appraiser. As an example, for a non-FHA loan, I might find that there is a broken window. I would mention the broken window and in my appraisal I would put an estimated cost to fix that window. Adjustments are made accordingly and that’s that.

But with FHA appraisals things that require an added inspection or repair typically fall into three categories that are known commonly as the “Three S’s”

Safety– Is the home going to preserve the safety and health of its occupants?
Security– Are there conditions of the home that will preserve the continued marketability of the property?
Soundness– Is the home structurally sound?

Now with this simple guideline come a ton of “what about” questions because no two properties are the same, but here are some no-brainer required repairs:

Inadequate access/egress from each bedroom directly to the exterior- so security bars on the windows, or no window at all on a bedroom are definitely bad things. If it’s 2AM and there’s a fire- can people get out of the house quickly?- Automatic repair required

Leaking or Worn out Roof- roof leaks cause water damage, cause structural integrity issues, cause mold, cause termite infestation, etc. If the roof is leaking, it needs to be repaired. Also, if the roof already has three layers of asphalt shingles and has problems, then the old roof needs to be removed instead of patched. If the roof has less than 2 more years of life left, then don’t be surprised if the Appraiser calls this out too

Evidence of Structural Problems- is the foundation lifting because of a nearby avocado tree’s roots? That’s a perfect example of evidence. The Appraiser would call for a structural engineer or home inspector to determine if it’s really an issue.

Defective Paint Surfaces when home was constructed prior to 1978. We’re talking lead based paint. If the tax records show that the home was built prior to 1978 and there is flaking, peeling or other signs, then it will be called out for repair. Of course the next question is- “What exactly needs to be done? Does the whole house need to be painted?” The quick and dirty answer is NO. But the repairs must be good enough where the Appraiser will not see any signs of defects.

Pretty simple stuff so far, but what about all the “What About” questions. Here’s a list of some that I’ve encountered and the course of action:

Swimming Pool is empty, or green or otherwise not up to swimmable condition- We’re talking about a safety issue here on several fronts- a green pool is a breeding ground for mosquitoes. A green pool is a place where people can fall in and not be seen. An empty pool is one where a person can fall in and break their neck. The swimming pool must be filled and functional or it will be called out to be repaired or otherwise rectified. But what is “otherwise rectified”? They can fill it with dirt.

What about a pool barrier? That’s more of a city code requirement. If it’s required locally, then it’s required by HUD. The Appraiser should know if it is required and report it accordingly and require necessary repair.

Fence missing or broken between neighbors when a pool is present? Wow, now we’re getting complex. Two issues here- most importantly is that the subject home isn’t very secure if someone can go through the neighbor’s backyard to get into the subject’s backyard. Also, despite the pool barrier, the missing fence is simply another step a person would have to take in order to get into the subject yard, get in the pool and drown. Sounds depressing, but drowning is a bad thing and HUD doesn’t like the idea of homes being potential death traps.

Possible Termite Damage- We’re talking about Soundness here. Any signs of termite damage require a termite inspection. If any structure on the subject property have wood that is touching the ground, then that requires a termite inspection. Or if the site isn’t graded properly and water can pool by the base of the house, that’s another obvious structural consideration.

Power is Not on in a Vacant Home- Well if it’s not on, then that’s a pretty significant system that can’t be tested. So either way, the home needs to be inspected when it’s on. That’s basically going to be something that the Appraiser can check himself.

Broken Windows or Exterior Doors- Security and Safety concern here for obvious reasons.

The Biggie- With so many foreclosed homes, it’s not uncommon to find a home with no kitchen… I mean yes, there’s a kitchen room, but the room has been gutted- cabinets, countertops, sink, appliances- just flat out gone. Well this falls into the whole Security blanket as marketability. You expect a kitchen in a house so it needs to be there. But what is required? The rule of thumb is “market standards”. You basically have to fill the space with what is typically found in a kitchen- which includes sink, countertops and cabinets. Same goes with the bathroom. If you have a 2 bathroom home and one is completely non-functional, then the appraiser would be “As Is”, but if you have no functional bathroom, then the house is not livable as you need a bathroom.

Hopefully this exercise has cleared things up a bit, but we all know that it probably only opens the door to more questions. Remember, each locality is different, so this is by no means a definitive list, nor does it mean that there is only one solution to each of these situations. Check with your underwriter to see what they specifically require as it may be very different from state to state.

Give us a call at 480-544-1217 with your unique FHA question or visit our website at http://www.advantageappraisalsllc.com/. I look forward to working with you.

Sincerely,

George

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